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Prediction markets for HuggingFace
OptionProbability
35
32
14
7
5
5
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
Jan 28, 1:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
2.72%chance
4115184
OptionVotes
6080
190
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
Mar 10, 12:34 PMMar 11, 3:59 AM
5.17%chance
239890
OptionVotes
4394
449
OptionVotes
1013
952
Will the top model by OpenAI rank 3rd (or lower) behind 2 other model families at any point before 2026?
Sep 15, 1:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
68.77%chance
71150
OptionVotes
1484
674
Which of these model providers will sign the EU AI Act Codes of Practice?
Jan 22, 6:45 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM
9709
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
83
42
27
26
26
0
OptionVotes
210
96
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