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Prediction markets for IAU
OptionVotes
2830
353
Will Pluto be reclassified as a planet before 2050?
Mar 22, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
12.47%chance
32982
OptionVotes
1406
894
Is the natural frequency of abiogenesis at least 1/1 trillion planets per billion years?
Oct 3, 1:33 AMJan 2, 2:29 AM
77.1%chance
8935
OptionVotes
1835
545
OptionProbability
71
22
3
3
Will the IAU change the definition of a planet by 2040?
Feb 24, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.36%chance
332
OptionVotes
90
53
Which of Orcus, Salacia, Gonggong and Sedna will be formally recognised as dwarf planets by the IAU in 2034?
Apr 30, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
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