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Prediction markets for IEA
Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?
Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
41.87%chance
322116454
OptionVotes
1186
815
OptionVotes
1010
955
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?
Mar 2, 6:09 PMSep 29, 6:08 PM
62.64%chance
32803
OptionVotes
1295
772
OptionVotes
1024
976
OptionVotes
1454
690
Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?
Mar 24, 5:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM
56.41%chance
181372
OptionVotes
1318
626
OptionVotes
214
47
[Metaculus] Will small modular nuclear reactors supply at least 1% of any nation's electricity by 2030?
Nov 3, 5:26 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM
21.94%chance
14672
OptionVotes
1338
873
Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 20 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?
Mar 4, 12:04 PMMay 31, 12:04 PM
5%chance
9521
OptionVotes
436
23
Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?
Mar 4, 12:04 PMMay 31, 12:04 PM
47.14%chance
9345
OptionVotes
106
94
Will the share of population exposed to high levels of air pollution fall below 15% by 2030?
Mar 11, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.8%chance
5252
OptionVotes
249
137
OptionVotes
138
73