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Prediction markets for IG
Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?
Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
46.49%chance
8816876
OptionVotes
1170
673
Will Disney be acquired by the end of Bob Iger's tenure as CEO?
Nov 23, 3:13 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM
4.42%chance
373790
OptionVotes
3469
726
Name new popular, positive terms for genetic technology use in oneself or one's offspring [2k subsidy]
Apr 4, 7:57 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
232962
OptionProbability
53
40
37
31
27
26
26
26
22
19
19
19
19
17
14
Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?
Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
10.28%chance
231399
OptionVotes
1997
812
OptionVotes
1156
880
OptionVotes
290
35
Will the Galápagos Land Iguana (Conolophus subcristatus) become extinct in the current century?
Mar 30, 11:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
36.94%chance
5331
OptionVotes
717
296
Will the Santa Fe Land Iguana, aka Barrington Land Iguana (Conolophus pallidus) become extinct in the current century?
Mar 30, 6:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
20.29%chance
3178
OptionVotes
662
421
OptionVotes
138
72
Will "Don’t ignore bad vibes you get from people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 20, 4:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15%chance
329
OptionVotes
101
93
Another manuscript with the Tale of Igor's Campaign found by 2075 EOY?
Oct 14, 12:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.01%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
980
Will isaak Freeman, Jose ricon, or Alexey guzey win an ig nobel prize by 2059
Sep 8, 1:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
43.75%chance
316
OptionVotes
113
88