IG News

14 hours ago

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.74%chance

8415595

OptionVotes

YES

1128

725

What will John Oliver talk about on his show? [Mega Market]

Apr 15, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

263599

OptionProbability

[American] Health Care

Donald Trump (incl. his trials)

J.D. Vance

The 2024 Election

Supreme Court (or its Justices)

Israel [incl. War in Gaza]

Gun Control

Russia [incl. War in Ukraine]

Abortion access

Joe Biden

Cost of Housing / Mortgage Rates

Weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy…etc)

Infrastructure

Mark Zuckerberg (incl. Meta / Facebook / IG…etc.)

Sports gambling

Big Tech

Processed Food (incl. Nutrition Labels)

The UK

Taylor Swift

Worker Unions and/or Co-ops

Summer Olympics

Antitrust Law

The Effective Altruism and/or Rationality movements

Japan

The British Royal Family (incl. King Charles, Prince Andrew)

FIFA

North Korea

Winter Olympics

Post office

Stagnating Wages of the Average Worker

100

Name new popular, positive terms for genetic technology use in oneself or one's offspring [2k subsidy]

Apr 4, 7:57 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

232646

OptionProbability

Genetic care

Non-steroid Athletic Augmentation (NAA)

Intentional Genetic Selection (IGS)

Humanity Enhancement

Heritage Optimization

Guided evolution

Conscious Genetic Elections (CGE)

Deliberate Allele Choice (DAC)

Conception freedom

Directed Elective Variation (DEV)

Hereditary Crafting

Voluntary Trait Selection (VTS)

Choose your own Geneventure (CyoG)

Voluntary eugenics (many people will still oppose it as if it was involuntary, but no amount of branding can win them over)

Alleartistry (Alleart)

Will Disney be acquired by the end of Bob Iger's tenure as CEO?

Nov 23, 3:13 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

10.63%chance

341686

OptionVotes

YES

1600

862

Will an AI get an Ig Nobel Prize before 2050?

Apr 9, 10:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.14%chance

241156

OptionVotes

YES

1156

880

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.97%chance

231149

OptionVotes

YES

1747

843

Will an AI receive an IgNobel Prize in 2025?

Oct 10, 10:41 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

28.64%chance

8760

OptionVotes

YES

1578

634

Will the Galápagos Pink Land Iguana (Conolophus marthae) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 30, 9:31 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.23%chance

4384

OptionVotes

YES

564

438

Will Ruja Ignatova be found (dead or alive) before 2027-10-25?

Oct 20, 8:13 PMOct 25, 9:59 PM

29.25%chance

6208

OptionVotes

YES

278

117

Will the Santa Fe Land Iguana, aka Barrington Land Iguana (Conolophus pallidus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 30, 6:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.64%chance

3168

OptionVotes

YES

652

423

Will isaak Freeman, Jose ricon, or Alexey guzey win an ig nobel prize by 2059

Sep 8, 1:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.75%chance

316

OptionVotes

YES

113

Will "Don’t ignore bad vibes you get from people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 20, 4:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.41%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

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Prediction markets for IG

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

What will John Oliver talk about on his show? [Mega Market]

Name new popular, positive terms for genetic technology use in oneself or one's offspring [2k subsidy]

Will Disney be acquired by the end of Bob Iger's tenure as CEO?

Will an AI get an Ig Nobel Prize before 2050?

Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?

Will an AI receive an IgNobel Prize in 2025?

Will the Galápagos Pink Land Iguana (Conolophus marthae) become extinct in the current century?

Will Ruja Ignatova be found (dead or alive) before 2027-10-25?

Will the Santa Fe Land Iguana, aka Barrington Land Iguana (Conolophus pallidus) become extinct in the current century?

Will isaak Freeman, Jose ricon, or Alexey guzey win an ig nobel prize by 2059

Will "Don’t ignore bad vibes you get from people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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