IMPACT News

NASA and IBM Launch Surya AI Model With 16% More Accurate Solar Storm Forecasts and Two-Hour Advance Warning

3 months ago

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

5.18%chance

127475709

OptionVotes

YES

4280

234

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Apr 25, 2:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.11%chance

14027155

OptionVotes

YES

4960

827

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.04%chance

10423559

OptionVotes

YES

10119

734

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

28.89%chance

1509688

OptionVotes

YES

1699

956

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

83.48%chance

743078

OptionVotes

YES

2254

594

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Oct 3, 12:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.19%chance

582894

OptionVotes

YES

974

943

Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition?

Oct 21, 12:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.81%chance

351744

OptionVotes

YES

1748

854

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.26%chance

241255

OptionVotes

YES

1445

838

Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?

Mar 24, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

24695

OptionVotes

YES

1131

907

Will an AI generated video have significant impact on US politics before 2029?

Jan 19, 1:54 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

75.13%chance

15350

OptionVotes

YES

1071

955

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.85%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

1051

737

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

OptionProbability

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 49

50 - 100

Above 100

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Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
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NASA and IBM Launch Surya AI Model With 16% More Accurate Solar Storm Forecasts and Two-Hour Advance Warning
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Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition?

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?

Will an AI generated video have significant impact on US politics before 2029?

Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

Latest stories

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