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Prediction markets for IMPACT
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM
5.18%chance
127475709
OptionVotes
4280
234
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
Apr 25, 2:15 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
8.11%chance
14027155
OptionVotes
4960
827
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
96.04%chance
10423559
OptionVotes
10119
734
Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?
Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM
28.89%chance
1509688
OptionVotes
1699
956
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
83.48%chance
743078
OptionVotes
2254
594
By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?
Oct 3, 12:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
85.19%chance
582894
OptionVotes
974
943
Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition?
Oct 21, 12:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
88.81%chance
351744
OptionVotes
1748
854
Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?
Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
82.26%chance
241255
OptionVotes
1445
838
Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?
Mar 24, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.78%chance
24695
OptionVotes
1131
907
Will an AI generated video have significant impact on US politics before 2029?
Jan 19, 1:54 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
75.13%chance
15350
OptionVotes
1071
955
Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.85%chance
251
OptionVotes
1051
737
By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de
May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM
00
OptionProbability
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
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