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Prediction markets for IMPACT
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM
3.66%chance
128481329
OptionVotes
5129
195
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
96.04%chance
10423559
OptionVotes
10119
734
Will NASA assign asteroid YR4 an impact probability of ≥4.0% before June 2029?
Feb 8, 8:14 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
3.25%chance
5117840
OptionVotes
5458
183
Will Y2K38 cause a significant impact in the United States?
Jan 29, 3:36 AMFeb 1, 8:00 AM
20.74%chance
15110260
OptionVotes
1566
1368
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
90.88%chance
774122
OptionVotes
3322
444
By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?
Oct 3, 12:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
90.36%chance
603396
OptionVotes
1431
907
Do high levels of carbon dioxide have significant negative impacts on cognition?
Oct 21, 12:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
88.81%chance
351744
OptionVotes
1748
854
Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?
Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
82.26%chance
241255
OptionVotes
1445
838
Will 25% of US construction workers have their jobs negatively impacted by AI by 2030?
Mar 24, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25%chance
24890
OptionVotes
1323
835
Will an AI generated video have significant impact on US politics before 2029?
Jan 19, 1:54 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
75.13%chance
15350
OptionVotes
1071
955
By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?
Jan 21, 6:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
88.53%chance
14263
OptionVotes
1170
952
Will "Impact, agency, and taste" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 19, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.85%chance
251
OptionVotes
1051
737
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