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Arkham Says UAE Holds About $700 Million in Bitcoin Via Citadel Mining

1 year ago

HYPE Token Surges Past $50 After $9 Million On-Chain Buy

Markets

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HYPE Token Surges Past $50 After $9 Million On-Chain Buy

1 year ago

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.86%chance

475814557039

OptionVotes

YES

22594

18168

Who will be elected president in 2028?

Apr 24, 1:23 AMNov 7, 12:00 AM

21291924067

OptionProbability

Jon Ossoff

J.D. Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Ron DeSantis

Pete Buttigieg

Donald Trump

Tucker Carlson

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Raphael Warnock

Mark Kelly

Ro Khanna

Chris Van Hollen

Joe Rogan

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

Ted Cruz

Amy Klobuchar

Kanye West

Hunter Biden

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Gretchen Whitmer

Bernie Sanders

Greg Abbott

Nikki Haley

No 2028 Election

Stacey Abrams

Glenn Youngkin

Elizabeth Warren

Cory Booker

Roy Cooper

Tim Scott

Mitch Landrieu

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Ruben Gallego

Katie Porter

Joe Biden

Wes Moore

Ration L. Ussy

Mark Cuban

Tim Walz

RFK Jr.

Tetraspace

Lina Khan

Shawn Fain

Donald Trump Jr

Elon Musk

Ritchie Torres

Taylor Swift

Barack Obama

Chris Murphy

Stephen A. Smith

Mickey Mouse

Ivanka Trump

Barron Trump

Laura Loomer

Abigail Spanberger

Sam Altman

John Fetterman

Tulsi Gabbard

Al Gore

Kathy Hochul

[deleted]

Josh Hawley

Rahm Emmanuel

Ezra Klein

Tim Kaine

invalid

Brian Kemp

David McCormick

Andrew Yang

Anna Paulina Luna

Amaryllis Fox

AI Overlord

Duplicate - Will Resolve No

Mike Johnson

Steven Bonell (Destiny)

Jamie Dimon

Abrego Garcia

Andrew Cuomo

Invalid

invalid

Deval Patrick

Jasmine Crockett

Oprah Winfrey

Michelle Obama

Sheldon Whitehouse

Robert Prevost

Harambe

Josh Stein

Jeff Jackson

Rand Paul

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elissa Slotkin

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.25%chance

814734994

OptionVotes

YES

9131

1058

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

5791

4783

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

328673400

OptionVotes

YES

2756

2354

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

89425

8110

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

36.47%chance

354297985

OptionVotes

YES

7016

3431

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.95%chance

303235787

OptionVotes

YES

3644

1334

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

530230132

OptionVotes

YES

12091

5829

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

268219925

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50148055

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Virtually impossible

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for in

Prediction markets for in

Prediction markets for in

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Who will be elected president in 2028?

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

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