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Prediction markets for Insider Gaming
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.17%chance
793419470
OptionVotes
25491
17311
OptionProbability
89
83
68
63
51
50
50
22
0
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
80
80
80
76
76
75
72
71
70
70
70
69
68
66
66
66
66
65
65
63
63
62
62
61
61
59
59
56
56
54
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
44
41
40
40
38
35
34
34
34
32
28
28
25
25
25
24
15
15
10
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?
May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM
29.38%chance
231983
OptionVotes
1551
645
OptionProbability
49
12
12
10
6
6
4
Will Valve announce a wearable, battery powered gaming PC?
Feb 15, 9:48 PMApr 9, 11:59 AM
29.35%chance
20760
OptionVotes
1052
965
Will the first mission of Grand Theft Auto 6 take place in a prison?
Dec 5, 11:08 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
42.59%chance
22348
OptionVotes
1105
909
OptionVotes
239
42
Will any country institute zones where it is illegal to go without wearing a MITM AR device by 2030?
Jun 26, 6:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14%chance
7150
OptionVotes
248
40
OptionVotes
101
50
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82
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