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Prediction markets for Institute
If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?
Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.47%chance
5131182
OptionVotes
23110
6062
Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?
Jan 7, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.24%chance
467548
OptionVotes
4708
668
Is Richard Hanania correct that major institutions are anti-white and anti-male. There is Gay propaganda in schools etc.
Apr 4, 11:03 PMJul 25, 7:24 AM
24.69%chance
294632
OptionVotes
998
971
Will the Nati'l Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism & CDC introduce stricter alcohol consumption guidelines by 2025?
Aug 26, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.81%chance
393721
OptionVotes
2769
481
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.31%chance
163092
OptionVotes
3237
737
Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?
Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
17.32%chance
42950
OptionVotes
4370
915
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14.9%chance
512833
OptionVotes
2059
657
Will New Zealand Crown Research Institutes be centralised by 2026?
Jan 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM
10.22%chance
22109
OptionVotes
2964
337
Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?
May 8, 11:44 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM
17.55%chance
201664
OptionVotes
1055
632
Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?
Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
81.86%chance
161059
OptionVotes
1454
850
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?
Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.14%chance
3650
OptionVotes
1650
606
OptionVotes
1029
953