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Prediction markets for Integral
If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?
May 21, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:06 PM
2530281
OptionProbability
64
18
11
7
Will Google integrate Bitcoin Lightning payments in the Play Store by the end of 2025?
May 17, 12:50 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
0.47%chance
3815297
OptionVotes
14482
69
Will Apple release a MacBook with LLM integration built in, by 2025 end?
Apr 1, 6:10 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
15%chance
507372
OptionVotes
3047
464
Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?
Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM
85.66%chance
434022
OptionVotes
3633
1265
Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?
Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
73.59%chance
212870
OptionVotes
1221
865
Will Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) be integrated in common technology devices by 2025?
Jun 29, 5:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13.57%chance
251824
OptionVotes
2152
677
GTA VI will have Spotify integration for the in-game radio
Nov 20, 9:07 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
12.97%chance
211480
OptionVotes
1902
763
By the year 2040, will the US military integrate a bipedal humanoid robot, similar to Boston Dynamics' Atlas, into its arsenal?
Feb 24, 1:29 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
73.63%chance
39981
OptionVotes
1295
850
A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field
Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM
18.11%chance
11836
OptionVotes
1104
960
Will Georgia (country) keep its territorial integrity until end of 2030? (The situation will not be worse than now)
Sep 21, 11:04 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM
57.1%chance
9610
OptionVotes
1154
867
Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊
Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
45.33%chance
20544
OptionVotes
1225
557
Will "The Great Data Integration Schlep" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Sep 14, 6:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
31.78%chance
7205
OptionVotes
1159
405