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Prediction markets for International Paper

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

796429324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34777

14340

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.39%chance

86134411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108928

17670

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

71%chance

228117803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1565

639

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)

Jun 26, 6:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

92431

OptionProbability

< 2 years

< 1 year

< 4 years

< 10 years

< 1 week

< 1 month

< 25 years

< 4 months

>= 25 years

30

28

14

12

4

4

4

3

2

Will an AI which achieves IMO gold medal before 2026 use MCTS during test-time?

Nov 25, 7:19 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

34.89%chance

10418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will Terence Tao publish a Math paper such that some result was solved by AI before 2028?

May 28, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.6%chance

10309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Will the District Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.84%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

47

Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

Mar 28, 6:07 AMMar 28, 6:05 AM

23.18%chance

8179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

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