International Paper News

4 months ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

48915

11661

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

106395

18257

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

67%chance

238127508

OptionVotes

YES

1425

702

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

9.34%chance

7655933

OptionVotes

YES

31227

3511

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

3327

301

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.32%chance

42950

OptionVotes

YES

4370

915

Will an AI which achieves IMO gold medal before 2026 use MCTS during test-time?

Nov 25, 7:19 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

28.97%chance

10438

OptionVotes

YES

157

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

Other

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

215

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

1025

976

Labour impose net migration cap below 150,000 before 2026?

Jul 21, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

8230

OptionVotes

YES

135

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

106

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Aug 21, 2025
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International Paper to Sell Cellulose Fibers Business to American Industrial Partners for $1.5 Billion, Cuts 1,000 Jobs Amid Georgia Mill Closures
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4 months ago

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Will an AI which achieves IMO gold medal before 2026 use MCTS during test-time?

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Labour impose net migration cap below 150,000 before 2026?

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Latest stories

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