International Paper News

1 year ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

835518679

OptionVotes

YES

58873

10436

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.56%chance

154223270

OptionVotes

YES

58291

46413

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

71.01%chance

271139584

OptionVotes

YES

1566

640

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947448

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.17%chance

144554

OptionVotes

YES

4791

209

When will Chuck Schumer cease to be Leader of the Senate Democrats?

Dec 28, 5:47 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

51827

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2028

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before Jul 2026

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

237

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Apr 6, 8:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.76%chance

14236

OptionVotes

YES

215

Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

Mar 28, 6:07 AMMar 28, 6:05 AM

23.18%chance

8179

OptionVotes

YES

182

Will the COMAC C949 be supersonic?

Mar 31, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.09%chance

347

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

69.45%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Latest stories

Aug 21, 2025
Aug 21, 2025
Georgia
Business
United States
International Paper to Sell Cellulose Fibers Business to American Industrial Partners for $1.5 Billion, Cuts 1,000 Jobs Amid Georgia Mill Closures
Authors
6
1 year ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

International Paper News

Top stories

Prediction markets for International Paper

Prediction markets for International Paper

Prediction markets for International Paper

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

When will Chuck Schumer cease to be Leader of the Senate Democrats?

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Will the US Supreme Court issue a preliminary or permanent injunction halting Tariffs on China?

Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

Will the COMAC C949 be supersonic?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram