International Paper News

1 year ago

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

7.67%chance

836529327

OptionVotes

YES

69114

9469

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.85%chance

540313641

OptionVotes

YES

6269

2990

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.02%chance

182305903

OptionVotes

YES

110696

29250

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

69.87%chance

281155182

OptionVotes

YES

1524

657

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?

Sep 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

158109278

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

3224

310

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.45%chance

3639

OptionVotes

YES

198

Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

Aug 23, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.86%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

68.69%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

102

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

YES

101

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1 year ago

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Latest stories

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