International Paper News
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Prediction markets for International Paper
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Sep 8, 10:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
24.25%chance
814734994
OptionVotes
9131
1058
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
5.21%chance
858583544
OptionVotes
89425
8110
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.41%chance
198384813
OptionVotes
155442
22908
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Sep 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.37%chance
202253938
OptionVotes
1267
789
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
72.42%chance
284156838
OptionVotes
1622
618
Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?
Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM
20049319
OptionProbability
79
12
6
3
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
7.64%chance
226982
OptionVotes
3477
288
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
8.77%chance
156407
OptionVotes
3224
310
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.4%chance
4927
OptionVotes
301
48
Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?
Aug 23, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.86%chance
5138
OptionVotes
145
96
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
70.83%chance
352
OptionVotes
110
96
Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.7%chance
221
OptionVotes
101
98
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