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Prediction markets for International Trade
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60%chance
602925
OptionVotes
1337
880
Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?
Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
76.83%chance
202334
OptionVotes
731
97
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM
26.52%chance
151661
OptionVotes
1665
601
Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?
Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.24%chance
481579
OptionVotes
1411
568
OptionVotes
1083
923
OptionVotes
1130
931
OptionVotes
1412
689
Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?
Dec 30, 9:54 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
80.49%chance
401349
OptionVotes
1303
891
Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043
Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
30.44%chance
15681
OptionVotes
1014
940
Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?
Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM
59.42%chance
5410
OptionVotes
1210
826
Will the BRICS nations officially launch a common digital settlement currency for international trade by the end of 2026
Feb 2, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19%chance
7141
OptionVotes
206
48
Will the USITC issue a final affirmative injury determination on unwrought palladium from Russia by Sep 30, 2026?
Feb 16, 5:48 PMSep 29, 5:48 PM
72.2%chance
278
OptionVotes
1078
968
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