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Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?
Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
15.68%chance
7147255
OptionVotes
22945
4656
Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025
Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41.13%chance
15536568
OptionVotes
1225
866
Will Trump reduce the trade deficit in his first year?
Nov 26, 10:08 PMFeb 6, 4:59 AM
20.67%chance
8121828
OptionVotes
1959
510
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2025?
Apr 6, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.01%chance
365853
OptionVotes
1425
702
Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?
May 29, 12:35 AMJan 1, 1:23 AM
68.88%chance
384517
OptionVotes
1488
672
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60%chance
602925
OptionVotes
1337
880
Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" found unlawful by courts and effectively ceased by EOY 2026?
Apr 21, 7:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.36%chance
132605
OptionVotes
1167
857
Will legal international trade in recreational cannabis happen before 2034?
Jan 2, 2:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
76.02%chance
192324
OptionVotes
721
100
Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?
Apr 21, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.24%chance
481579
OptionVotes
1411
568
OptionVotes
1154
928
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM
46.74%chance
14929
OptionVotes
1068
937
Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043
Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
30.44%chance
15681
OptionVotes
1014
940
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