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Top stories

Democrats Tout Inflation Reduction Act Gains on Third Anniversary

Democrats Tout Inflation Reduction Act Gains on Third Anniversary

Authors

7

10 months ago

Prediction markets for IRA

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.41%chance

19162825920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37705

4647

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

23.11%chance

207371464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

549

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.96%chance

21274943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13130

2376

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.06%chance

9039266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17739

1192

Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?

Mar 13, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.46%chance

9010995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7898

5078

What will be the IRS limit for IRA contributions in 2027?

Nov 14, 6:13 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

33681

OptionProbability

7500

8000

8500

Other

9000

54

23

11

8

4

Will the "Backdoor" Roth IRA loophole be removed by 2030?

Jan 22, 6:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.38%chance

10425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

183

Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on June 30, 2027?

Apr 7, 2:27 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

37.06%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

80

Will more than 50 percent of IRA Sections 45, 45Y, 48 and 48E tax credits be cut by EOY2027

Jul 15, 1:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will less then 50 percent of IRA 30C Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit survive thru EOY2027?

Jul 15, 1:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:27 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

85%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 16, 2025
Aug 16, 2025
US Legislation
Economics
Energy
Democrats Tout Inflation Reduction Act Gains on Third Anniversary
Authors
7
10 months ago

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