OptionVotes
YES
NO
11869
8835
OptionProbability
Significant protests are reported in February and March
The US launches airstrikes
Israel and Iran go to war again
Iran strikes Israel with missiles
The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)
Iran strikes US bases
The US launches airstrikes on three different days
Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American
Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power
The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed
US ground troops enter Iran
75
61
52
51
50
48
25
23
11
10
Before 2028
Before 2027
Before August 2025
Before September 2025
Before 2026
63
0
333
30
100
130
77
