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OptionVotes
5898
2230
Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?
Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
64.64%chance
241675
OptionVotes
1056
825
OptionVotes
2390
418
Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2025?
Mar 19, 6:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
11.28%chance
291632
OptionVotes
2307
648
OptionVotes
1067
965
OptionVotes
1000
707
OptionVotes
1073
932
Will Japan gain de facto control of Shikotan island (one of the Kuril islands) from Russia before 2031?
Jan 5, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
19.01%chance
13414
OptionVotes
1016
840
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?
Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM
72%chance
14346
OptionVotes
1091
949
OptionVotes
340
118
Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?
May 30, 12:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
54.5%chance
3105
OptionVotes
1095
914
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
51%chance
759
OptionVotes
156
143