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JR News

    Prediction markets for JR

    RFK Jr stock

    Apr 9, 8:25 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM
    3861560

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    590

    564

    OptionProbability

    Below 94%

    95.5%-96.49%

    96.5%-97.49%

    94%-95.49%

    97.5% or above

    25

    25

    23

    16

    11

    Will Robert Downey Jr. appear in Avengers: Secret Wars?

    Nov 6, 9:25 AMApr 30, 11:00 AM
    94.69%chance
    242806

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2632

    48

    Will RFK Jr. be impeached before the midterms?

    Dec 11, 2:23 AMNov 4, 12:59 AM
    11.36%chance
    71853

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2328

    696

    Will Donald Trump Jr run in the 2026 midterm elections?

    Dec 16, 1:48 AMNov 29, 11:59 PM
    5.38%chance
    6359

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    419

    24

    OptionProbability

    Jim O'Neill

    Neither or Both (both serve the full term or announced the same day)

    RFK Jr.

    39

    31

    30

    Will Robert Downey Jr. appear as Iron Man again in the MCU?

    Nov 5, 6:31 PMNov 12, 10:59 PM
    89.71%chance
    9258

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    207

    25

    Will Dennis Smith Jr. ever play a playoff game?

    Mar 1, 2:10 AMMar 8, 4:59 AM
    31%chance
    149

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    149

    67

    The Final Outcome of the Marcos Jr. Presidency

    Nov 15, 7:46 PMJun 29, 5:36 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

    Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

    Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

    Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

    Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

    Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

    Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

    Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

    Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

    Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

    Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

    Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

    Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

    Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

    Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

    Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

    Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

    Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

    Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

    Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

    Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

    Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

    Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

    Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

    Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

    Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

    Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

    Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

    Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

    Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.

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