Just the News News

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2030

Before January 2040

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

A second major version of the model has been released

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

Video will include sound

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It will still be trickable into replicating at least some popular copyrighted material (text prompt only)

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

It will be free to use

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Sora will be part of GPT model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A third major version of the model has been released

It has been renamed

Full description of model architecture will be public

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

Fox News

Mike Johnson (speaker of the house)

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

YES

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Officials Say

With Biden

Trump Wins

Court Orders

Found dead

Texas Fire

Civil war

Olympic Gold

Climate Change

Bird Flu

Supreme Court

Trade War

Southern Border

Border Crisis

Artificial Intelligence

Landmark Decision

Second Term

Inflation down

federal reserve

Officials Insist

Tension Builds

Vows to

Drone Strike

Trump Ordered

A.I. Legislation

Earthquake Kills

Former President

New report

Death Toll

at Odds

European Union

Talks Between

declares war

Assassination Attempt

AI Czar

Keir Starmer

National Emergency

On record

Lawmakers Move

Tipping Point

Summer Olympic Games

Fake news

Impeachment Inquiry

Takes Gold

Chemical weapon

Officials Worry

First Ever

threat to democracy

Trump guilty

Cancer cure

nuclear weapon

market crashes

In Historic Decision

Hoping To

Officials Declare

Officials Deny

Alleged genocide

Highest Ever

Strikes continue

Ceasefire Agreement

Republicans Lose

Third attempt

nuclear bomb

Kremlin Says

court allows

Nuclear war

General Condemns

Joins NATO

Swift Becomes

Musk donates

Tempers Flare

Dalai Lama

Homelessness ban

Generation Alpha

Haley announces

In Setback

Double Knockout

Supreme Court, 9-0

Most Ever

Trump Convicted

Take Home

Leaves NATO

trump’s assassin

Olympic Debut

Carter Dead

Talks Begin

Presidential library

Revolutionary Song

Artificial General Intelligence

69 billion

Harris Wins

"French Fries"

Biden Announces

Occult hand

Effective Altruism

Sudden Death

Demands Justice

TikToker Found

Feared dead following

Apocalypse imminent

Biden Wins

Florida Man

Trump Dead

Holy hell

Putin Dead

Biden Dead

owo what's this

I Like Ike

Astral Codex Ten

Manifold Markets

Ghost Trees

Williamson Wins

Africa Toto

General Condoms

Dewey Defeats Truman

En passant forced

Titanic 2 Sinks

skibidi toilet

never gonna give you up

Rationalussy Cult

The Guardian

Forbes

CNN

San Francisco Chronicle

Max Tegmark

Yoshua Bengio

Vitalik Buterin

The New Yorker

Carl Feynman

Emmett Shear

Bruce Schneier

George Church

Scott Aaronson

Daniel Kokotajlo

Ben Bernanke

Stephen Fry

Tim Urban

Grimes

Scott Alexander

Booklist

Matthew Yglesias

A former Fed Chair

The Times

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Publishers Weekly

A professor of a Chinese university

Ezra Klein

A Science editorial

Keach Hagey

Neel Nanda

Judea Pearl

Eric Schmidt

At least five Nobel laureates

A former US Secretary of Treasury

A former US Secretary of State

Kurzgesagt

The Washington Post

The Economist

Foreign Affairs

Geoffrey Hinton

Shane Legg

Chris Olah

Any five current members of the UK Parliament

Christine Peterson

Evan Hubinger

A former US Secretary of Commerce

CNN editorial

A Scientific American editorial

The New York Times Book Review

Gillian Hadfield

Daron Acemoglu

Karen Hao

Gwern

roon

Kevin Roose

Billy Perrigo

Telegraph

NPR

Politico

Vox

Rolling Stone

A former US Secretary of Energy

Helen Toner

António Guterres

Stuart Russell

Nick Bostrom

WIRED

IEEE Spectrum

Dario Amodei

Financial Times

Bloomberg Businessweek

Time

Mira Murati

Peter Norvig

John Schulman

David Chalmers

Dwarkesh Patel

Patrick McKenzie

Peter Singer

Manifold

Geoffrey Irving

A review in The Atlantic

A current Fed Chair

A Nature editorial

Elon Musk

The Wall Street Journal

Yuval Noah Harari

Noam Chomsky

A New Scientist editorial

BBC

Associated Press

Ilya Sutskever

Vanity Fair

King Charles

A high-ranking Chinese government official

Toby Ord

Greg Egan

A current US Secretary of Treasury

Jimmy Fallon

Fox News

A current US Secretary of Commerce

Bill Gates

Ray Kurzweil

Demis Hassabis

Anthropic

Barack Obama

JD Vance

Reuters

Mustafa Suleyman

Joe Rogan

A current US Secretary of Energy

A current pope

Satya Nadella

Tim Cook

Kamala Harris

Terence Tao

A current UK prime minister

Ivanka Trump

Tucker Carlson

Tim Berners-Lee

Ursula von der Leyen

Daniela Amodei

Any five current United States senators

A current US Secretary of State

Mr. Beast

Benjamin Netanyahu

RFK Jr

Xi Jinping

Richard Sutton

John Oliver

OpenAI

DeepMind

Donald J. Trump

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

Jeff Bezos

Jensen Huang

Bill Clinton

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Vladimir Putin

Peter Thiel

Taylor Swift

Lex Fridman

Joe Biden

JK Rowling

Alexandr Wang

Narendra Modi

Kelsey Piper

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube

Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases

Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more

trump is impeached by either house OR senate

Hades 3 announced (game)

English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more

Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more

windows 12 announcement is made

this market reaches 100 traders

undersea cables reported cut around taiwan

this market reaches 5k individual TRADES

Saw XI Releases in USA

stripe ipo happens

another trump assassination attempt

Legally Blonde 3 release date announced

a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news

the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses

chinese spy balloon incident reported on news

openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo

alan greenspan passes away

israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will

manifold raises more money

discord IPO happens

trump removes a cabinet member

someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard

noam chomsky passes away

Imu face reveal in One Piece manga

onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86

Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)

Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube

Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users

fourth Knives Out movie announced

EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26

EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27

zootopia 2 releases

Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape

Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year

Cy Young award winner announced

MLB rookie of the year announced

Last game of the MLB World Series ends

EOD Halloween - Oct 31

First game of the MLB World Series starts

coup in an african country

2025 nobel peace prize winner announced

Third dune movie officially announced

EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9

Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more

the third Atlantic hurricane of the season

the second Atlantic hurricane of the season

Skate 4 releases

trump starts mass deportations

Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage

the first Atlantic hurricane of the season

Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year

Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase

Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world

Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world

Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam

grok4 release date

the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025

EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4

the third Pacific hurricane of the season

28 years Later releases in USA

the second Pacific hurricane of the season

chime IPO happens

Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year

First Apple Event of the year

the first Pacific hurricane of the season

manifest 2025 ends

Manifest 2025 starts

Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers

Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more

English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more

claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)

EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5

Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year

Last day of the NFL draft

Llama 4 released to the general userbase

Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video

south korean president removed from power

the first Solar eclipse of the year

First Nintendo direct of the year

trump declares war or orders military actions on another country

Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire

EOD Ides of March - Mar 15

the first Lunar eclipse of the year

EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico

new iphone releases in the USA (official date)

Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year

new iphone release date announced (in the USA)

grok 3 release date

nintendo switch successor announced officially

trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china

CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)

doomsday clock announcement

USA President issues 10th executive order

USA President issues 1st executive order

Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends

Market chaos

Vacant House seats at start of term

Bonus underlying chaos

Bonus market chaos

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Any member seated who was not the winner

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

New election ordered for any seat

Any major news organization retracts a call

Any member-elect changes parties

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

Any election delayed

Paid subscription to get extra boost on your markets

Paid subscription to get cosmetics on your avatar/markets

Paid subscription to get cheaper question creation

Paid subscription to get larger/faster loans

Paid subscription to get priority/exclusive matches in match marking on Manifold.love

Lachlan Murdoch takes control

Empire dissolved through sales

Continues in current political direction

Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.

Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area

Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women

Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI

The Odyssean Institute

Mechanical Library

Educate the public about high impact causes

Science prediction markets for replicability

Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action

Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.

Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies

LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments

Building software to demystify land use regulations

Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use

Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)

Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression

MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks

Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives

H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training

Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides

Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge

Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.

Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss

Upgrade YIMBY messaging

Publish a book on Egan education for parents

Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.

Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM

Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling

Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science

Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act

Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts

Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries

Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty

Year one of AI Safety Tokyo

Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan

Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks

Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability

Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India

An online science platform

Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity

Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology

News through prediction markets

A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform

Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality

Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning

Replicate social science research

Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers