Just the News News

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

123

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Any country leaves NATO

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

China invades Taiwan

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Sudanese Civil War ends

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

USA leaves NATO

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Humans will extinct

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe

#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable

#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious

#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals

#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't

#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us

#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating

#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world

#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion

#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work

#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters

#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after

#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models

#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it

#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk

#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less

#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment

#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite

#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI

#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do

#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption

#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion

#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives

#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe

#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels

#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down

#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures

#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news

#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe

#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers

#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child

If Trump wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Trump wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump wins, will the USA pass Ukraine aid at least once in his term

If Trump wins, will the USA conduct mass deportations before end of his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, the S&P500 will reach a new all time high before the end of his term

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, he will be impeached again before the end of his life

If Trump wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report he has attempted to pass legislation to increase presidential term limits (i.e. >2 terms) before Inauguration Day 2029

Biden will win AND Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Biden/dems wins, Bitcoin will reach a new All Time High before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems Wins, Trump will go to prison before the end of his life

If Trump Wins, Trump will NOT be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Trump wins, Biden will die before the end of Trump's term

If Trump Wins, Trump will be found guilty of a crime before the end of his life

If Joe Biden Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Joe Biden's term

If Biden/Dems wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden wins, Biden will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton will be charged with a crime before the end of her life

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] report that 1,000,000+ undocumented immigrants have been deported during 2025

If Trump Wins, Joe Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of either of their lives

If Biden wins, the Ukraine/Russia war will end in a border settlement of some type before the end of his term

If Dems/Biden wins, Trump will concede within 1 month

If Trump Wins, Hunter Biden will be charged with a crime before the end of Trump's term

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will concede within 1 week

If Biden/Dems wins, Trump will die before the end of their term

If Dems/Biden wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, Trump will die before the end of his term

If Trump wins, China will invade Taiwan OR full blockade (or otherwise attack)

If Trump wins, at least two of [BBC, CNN, NYT, Reuters, Washington Post, Fox News, AP] will be censored, prosecuted, nationalized, shut down, or prevented by government action from operating freely & openly in the US.

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Israel/Palestine (troops on ground / in air)

If Trump wins, Russia attacks Poland

If Trump wins , the USA will leave NATO before the end of his term

If Biden/Dems wins, we'll go to war in Ukraine (troops on ground / in air) during his time in office

If Trump wins, they will expand the supreme court before the end of the term

If Dems/Biden wins, will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by end of his term

Vacant House seats at start of term

Market chaos

Bonus market chaos

Bonus underlying chaos

Any state misses filing deadlines for certified results

Multiple Speaker ballots, or failure to elect a Speaker on the first day

Vacant Senate seats at start of term

Congress refuses to accept any certified result

New election ordered for any seat

Any member seated who was not the winner

Majority control discrepancy in the Senate

Majority control discrepancy in the House

Any major news organization retracts a call

Failure to establish a quorum in first roll-call vote (either chamber)

Any member-elect changes parties

Senator not up for re-election changes party

Any election delayed

Any member-elect denied the oath of office

Wikipedia

Amazon

Youtube

Baidu

Microsoft.com

Microsoft365

Microsoft Office

Google

Whatsapp

Linkedin

Pornhub

Reddit

Samsung Electronics

Weather Channel

Instagram

Netflix

Pinterest

Facebook

Microsoft Outlook

Discord

Telegram

Twitch

Microsoft Bing

DuckDuckGo

Tiktok

OpenAI

eBay

Twitter

Yahoo

Zoom

Roblox

Xvideos

Yahoo Japan

Zen News

xHamster

Naver

Bilibili

Turbo pages

Max

xHamster.desi

QQ

Globo

XNXX

Docomo

Yandex Search

VK

Fandom

Sharepoint

Mail.ru

2026

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

Fitbit

Blogger

Feedburner

Google News

Google Classroom

Google Chat

Google Photos

Google Chrome

Google Play (brand)

Google Drive

Google Maps

Gemini

Google Analytics

Google Search

Youtube

Google Pixel (brand)

Gmail

Weather Forecaster

Entertainment

Sex

Other

Therapy

There will be nothing that satisfies the criteria for highly-interactive reflective e-celebrity AI

Politics

Science

Career

Education

Coaching

Community

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

No news / announcements, just a fun skit

Anything to do with Generation 10

Anything to do with Champions