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Prediction markets for Libération
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM
64.65%chance
19938407
OptionVotes
1197
851
OptionVotes
3771
767
Will the Australian Nationals merge with Australian Liberal party on a federal level, before 2026?
Feb 18, 11:53 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM
1%chance
61777
OptionVotes
995
10
Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?
Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM
21.52%chance
151599
OptionVotes
1960
387
Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030
Jan 6, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
78.64%chance
371499
OptionVotes
1021
798
Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?
Jan 29, 8:51 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM
23.47%chance
151324
OptionVotes
1806
554
OptionVotes
2000
500
Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?
Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.38%chance
201115
OptionVotes
1184
844
Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
59.54%chance
7499
OptionVotes
1213
824
Next pope regarded as conservative (YES) or liberal (NO)?
Apr 21, 3:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
23.24%chance
26447
OptionVotes
182
55
OptionProbability
65
35
Will Trump's 2nd term be better than his first term (according to historians - tend to be liberal)?
Nov 6, 7:44 AMMar 30, 4:59 AM
15%chance
7140
OptionVotes
238
42