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LFI Sparks Press-Freedom Row by Barring Le Monde Reporter

1 year ago

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

12%chance

20943011

OptionVotes

YES

2479

131

Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?

Aug 13, 9:20 PMSep 12, 10:59 PM

17.21%chance

173227

OptionVotes

YES

2193

456

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Mar 22, 1:13 PMOct 27, 11:59 PM

112748

OptionProbability

Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time

Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index

Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed

Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency

General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time

No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)

Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections

100

Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030

Jan 6, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.64%chance

371499

OptionVotes

YES

1021

798

Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?

Jan 29, 8:51 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

23.47%chance

151324

OptionVotes

YES

1806

554

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.51%chance

211148

OptionVotes

YES

1140

877

People's Liberation Army (PLA) stock

Apr 13, 9:22 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

15767

OptionProbability

YES

267

216

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58%chance

9557

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

Will liberals lose the 2026 midterms because of Bluesky?

Nov 28, 2:26 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

7.48%chance

17554

OptionVotes

YES

352

How many members will the UK Liberal Democrats have at the start of 2029?

May 2, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1345

OptionProbability

Above 50,000

Above 100,000

Above 150,000

Above 200,000

Above 400,000

Above 600,000

Who will succeed Mark Carney as the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada?

Mar 11, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10189

OptionProbability

Other

Chrystia Freeland

Mélanie Joly

Karina Gould

Justin Trudeau

François-Philippe Champagne

Anita Anand

Marc Garneau

Dominic LeBlanc

Sean Fraser

Christy Clark

Will "Lesswrong Liberated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 8:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

992

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Aug 23, 2025
Aug 23, 2025
France
Politics
World
LFI Sparks Press-Freedom Row by Barring Le Monde Reporter
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1 year ago

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If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?

Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]

Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030

Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

People's Liberation Army (PLA) stock

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Will liberals lose the 2026 midterms because of Bluesky?

How many members will the UK Liberal Democrats have at the start of 2029?

Who will succeed Mark Carney as the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada?

Will "Lesswrong Liberated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

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