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Prediction markets for Libération
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM
10%chance
20942496
OptionVotes
2625
113
How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win at the next general election?
May 2, 8:23 AMDec 31, 9:22 AM
145072
OptionProbability
52
30
15
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1706
586
Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?
Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM
17.07%chance
161849
OptionVotes
2210
328
Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030
Jan 6, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
78.64%chance
371499
OptionVotes
1021
798
Will a liberal justice leave the Supreme Court during Trump's presidential term?
Jan 29, 8:51 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM
23.47%chance
151324
OptionVotes
1806
554
Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?
Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.51%chance
211148
OptionVotes
1140
877
OptionProbability
82
6
5
5
1
1
Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?
Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
58%chance
9557
OptionVotes
1175
851
Will Trump's 2nd term be better than his first term (according to historians - tend to be liberal)?
Nov 6, 7:44 AMMar 30, 4:59 AM
11.31%chance
9191
OptionVotes
280
36
Will Jacinta Price be the next Liberal deputy in Australia?
Oct 23, 11:51 AMNov 30, 8:05 PM
22.01%chance
4110
OptionVotes
146
60
Will "Lesswrong Liberated" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 1, 8:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.33%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992