OptionVotes
NO
YES
4372
338
1113
899
1073
767
OptionProbability
Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)
Elections held before October 27th
Likud is the biggest party after next elections
More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold
New PM other than Netanyahu
Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)
Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud
Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block
Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections
Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections
Parliament dissolved before 2026 starts
Parliament dissolves before budget deadline (end of March)
100
81
73
60
57
47
46
35
30
16
0
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