Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)
New primary elections for Likud before the general elections
Religious Zionism–Zehut passes the threshold
Ra’am passes the threshold
More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold
New PM other than Netanyahu
The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails
Amcha Yisrael passes the threshold
The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats
Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)
Opposition-led coalition, with temporary support from Arab parties, is sweared in and immediately disbanded - just so Netanyahu will not be caretaker PM
At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold
Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block
Likud is the biggest party after next elections
Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud
Reservists + New Economy passes the threshold
Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections
Blue and White passes the threshold
Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections
Elections held before October 27th
Parliament dissolved before 2026 starts
Parliament dissolves before budget deadline (end of March)
