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Likud Party News

    Prediction markets for Likud Party

    Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

    Dec 1, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    3215542

    OptionProbability

    Likud is the biggest party after next elections

    Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

    Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud

    New primary elections for Likud before the general elections

    Religious Zionism–Zehut passes the threshold

    Ra’am passes the threshold

    Speaker of the is replaced within 4 weeks after elections day

    New PM other than Netanyahu

    Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block

    A new government with Likud and Yashar is sweared in before 2027

    Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)

    The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails

    Opposition-led coalition, with temporary support from Arab parties, is sweared in and immediately disbanded - just so Netanyahu will not be caretaker PM

    Elections held before October 27th

    Parliament dissolved before 2026 starts

    Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections

    Parliament dissolves before budget deadline (end of March)

    Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections

    More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold

    At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold

    The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats

    Amcha Yisrael passes the threshold

    Reservists + New Economy passes the threshold

    Blue and White passes the threshold

    Opposition block (ex Arabs) wins more seats than coalition block; Netanyahu declares victory

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    80

    60

    53

    50

    48

    38

    22

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

    Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    59.08%chance
    387493

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1202

    832

    Will the Likud win the next Israeli election

    Nov 2, 4:20 PMNov 10, 4:59 AM
    26.26%chance
    434042

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1020

    964

    OptionProbability

    Yashar

    Joint List

    Raam

    Likud

    56

    33

    27

    17

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