Meta AI Research News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Meta AI Research
OptionProbability
29
27
22
8
7
5
2
0
Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?
Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.27%chance
384389
OptionVotes
2957
338
Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?
Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM
90.22%chance
63575
OptionVotes
3037
329
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
18.92%chance
322864
OptionVotes
1213
898
Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?
Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.91%chance
151771
OptionVotes
2299
435
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.12%chance
4157
OptionVotes
1091
1011
Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?
Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.79%chance
5117
OptionVotes
184
54
OptionProbability
42
23
17
9
9
Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?
Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
41.66%chance
455
OptionVotes
118
85
Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?
May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.12%chance
250
OptionVotes
120
86
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
124
OptionVotes
124
67
Will any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2029?
Oct 21, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
12
OptionVotes
100
100
Latest stories
Latest stories