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Prediction markets for Meta AI Research
OptionProbability
32
23
21
8
8
5
3
0
Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?
Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.29%chance
364370
OptionVotes
2953
339
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
16.84%chance
312834
OptionVotes
1351
868
Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?
Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.79%chance
141501
OptionVotes
2149
465
Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?
Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM
26.66%chance
51141
OptionVotes
1659
603
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.12%chance
4157
OptionVotes
1091
1011
AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?
May 19, 12:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
35.89%chance
5140
OptionVotes
134
75
OptionVotes
173
58
OptionProbability
42
23
17
9
9
Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?
Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
41.66%chance
455
OptionVotes
118
85
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%chance
122
OptionVotes
122
82
Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?
Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.25%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
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