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Prediction markets for Microsoft AI
New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?
Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
41239768
OptionProbability
37
27
19
17
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.54%chance
17534125
OptionVotes
14201
7469
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
72.14%chance
5712815
OptionVotes
1609
622
OptionVotes
2683
373
Will OpenAI be more valuable than Microsoft before 2040?
Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.19%chance
282140
OptionVotes
1073
710
Will retrieval-augmented-generation (RAG) still be used in 2026?
Aug 12, 4:11 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM
87.43%chance
241992
OptionVotes
2685
386
Will the AI that takes over the universe be a cute anime girl?
Sep 21, 4:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
30.68%chance
341027
OptionVotes
1126
924
OptionProbability
53
52
47
38
35
31
30
20
19
12
Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?
Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
32.16%chance
9722
OptionVotes
1452
689
OptionProbability
48
19
17
10
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
110
91
OpenAI or Microsoft offers or provides AI infra for an LLM in China before 3/2027
Mar 22, 3:15 PMMar 2, 6:59 AM
18.66%chance
7209
OptionVotes
246
82
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