Ministry of Defense News
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Prediction markets for Ministry of Defense
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
22.37%chance
553262179
OptionVotes
9333
5985
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.3%chance
196946
OptionVotes
13549
7392
Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?
May 2, 2:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1.13%chance
254589
OptionVotes
2353
54
China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026
Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.66%chance
211726
OptionVotes
1960
510
Will Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Hossein Deghan still be alive on June 1st 2026?
Mar 20, 3:43 PMJun 1, 12:00 AM
61%chance
8679
OptionVotes
125
80
Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by June 30, 2026?
Oct 12, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM
60.51%chance
16386
OptionVotes
124
81
Will China continue gallium export restrictions targeting Japan on April 1, 2026?
Mar 2, 6:12 PMApr 1, 6:11 PM
89.04%chance
3185
OptionVotes
285
35
Will China officially acknowledge its new sixth-gen tailless stealth fighter prototypes (J-36 / J-50) before 2027
Mar 7, 1:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.79%chance
4175
OptionVotes
357
217
Will Liu Zhenli be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?
Jan 21, 4:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.65%chance
7135
OptionVotes
159
63
Will Iran run out of ballistic missiles before the coalition runs out of interceptors?
Mar 16, 9:29 PMMar 16, 9:28 PM
79%chance
8124
OptionVotes
194
52
When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?
Feb 22, 12:05 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
43.42%chance
590
OptionVotes
1018
984
Will a spokesperson for the PRC Ministry of National Defense confirm that Dong Jun is under investigation by this date?
Dec 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
215
OptionProbability
50
50
50
28