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Prediction markets for MOL
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
14
Will Curtis Yarvin ("Mencius Moldbug") be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 2, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.36%chance
272201
OptionVotes
2014
871
Russia launches a military incursion into Moldova before January 1, 2026
Mar 13, 4:20 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
18.62%chance
181564
OptionVotes
820
107
If/When we find aliens will there primary molecule for life be carbon
Apr 3, 10:36 AMDec 11, 4:59 AM
87.66%chance
211296
OptionVotes
1409
861
Will Jon Zherka get convicted for child molestation before 2030?
Dec 18, 8:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
41.6%chance
11686
OptionVotes
997
994
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
32.46%chance
14587
OptionVotes
1139
442
Outcome of Molly White's FEC complaint vs. Coinbase (campaign contributions)
Aug 9, 11:39 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
4561
OptionProbability
29
26
24
15
6
Will molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Dec 31, 4:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
20%chance
10274
OptionVotes
1035
975
Wavelet-based electrostatics solver in molecular dynamics code? (Before Nov 2026)
Nov 9, 9:09 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM
46.19%chance
3206
OptionVotes
74
53
Will Andrei Molodkin's "Dead Man's Switch" be activated and destroy at least $10 million dollars of artwork?
Feb 14, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
14.91%chance
589
OptionVotes
232
118
Will Ethan Mollick create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 5:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
26.96%chance
751
OptionVotes
212
145
Will Lada Nuzhna and Jose Luis Ricon both raise a pet naked mole rat together?
Jun 4, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.25%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91