OptionProbability
The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders
20-27 years old
Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account
US citizen
Male
Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?
The shooter killed Charlie Kirk
White
Born in the United States
Lives (or has lived) in Utah
Native English speaker (L1)
used a bolt action rifle
has at least one sibling
at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”
had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk
disliked Charlie Kirk
Is named Tyler Robinson
“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)
The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya
Resided in the same state as the incident
Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law
Is a registered voter
Did it on purpose
Skinny
Gamer
wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing
The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien
Motivated primarily by political ideology
ectomorph body type
Had bullets with engraved messages on them
He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.
Acted alone (no accomplices)
Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member
Is left wing
Owns steam profile 76561198159427286
at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
has expressed positive sentiment towards furries
Turns themselves in to the police / FBI
Hunter
Accident please N/A
has purchased furry-related media or items
Will plead guilty
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender
Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)
Unemployed
iphone user
Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs
is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman
Not a virgin
Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam
Owns a car
Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area
legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk
has a furaffinity account
actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.
Furry
Owns physical furry paraphernalia
Communicated with peers primarily through Discord
extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices
Strongly opposes zionism
Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman
n/a
There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account
Dies in prison
Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa
has used the word yiff in written communication
Conspired with an AI chatbot about this
Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Is sentenced to death
had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university
Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt
was prescribed psychiatric medication
has vore kink
Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)
Went to furry events
cross-dresser
Will kill again (including suicide)
Wrote a manifesto before the shooting
JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has a Bluesky account
Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy
White cis-hetero Christian man
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione
student at any university
Owns a fursuit
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry
Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting
Brony or a fan of My Little Pony
Radical Centrist/JREG fan
Will be convicted by EOY 2025
Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma
Former or current Charlie Kirk fan
Has ADHD
psychedelics user
at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Contact with CVLT/764/similar
made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)
There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account
Was on an FBI watchlist
6 ft tall
Had diagnosed mental illness
Will be convicted by EOY 2026
J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy
Transgender
Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side
Incel
Fan fiction author
Femboy
History of illegal drug addiction
Escapes carceral detention
Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time
History of domestic violence
has significant student load debt
Owned the firearm used
Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)
Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way
Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)
Left-handed
Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)
All questions in this market are resolved before 2026
Had felony conviction previously
Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member
groyper
Is right wing
Current or previous student at University of Utah
is Mossad
Was a student at UVU
Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)
Accelerationist (any subtype)
Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists
Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets
White Nationalist
The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book
Current or former Roman Catholic
Involved in Effective Altruism
Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?
Has a parent who drives for Uber
decel
Will get killed by law enforcement
Was a fan of Charlie Kirk
The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology
Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)
Used a handgun
Ex-military
Has a PhD
Has a Manifold account
Muslim
Veteran
History of alcoholism
A time traveller trying to avoid the worst
Will share their first name with a famous video game character
Participates in this market
Teenager
Has a master's degree
Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.
Female Ninja Type Sniper
Is or was a computer science student
is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat
Ex law enforcement
Married
Parent
Manifold assists with his capture
Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head
Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025
Not arrested before EOY 2025
Fled the country after the shooting
Personally knew Charlie Kirk
Enjoys diplomatic immunity
Indian national
The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI
Iranian national
Registered Democrat
used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory
The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria
Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14
Will be apprehended at a McDonald's
50 years or older
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OptionProbability
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)
CIA
Other US government agency or official
Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)
Mafia
Other
Cuban government
KGB / Soviets
LBJ
US military
FBI
Other US leftwing group
Other US rightwing group
US company
Foreign company
Mossad / Israeli government
Other foreign government
Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people
76
15
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Santa is rigged
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Groundhog Day is rigged
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
John McAfee didn't kill himself
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
The CIA killed JFK
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Bush did 9/11
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Princess Diana was assassinated
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Human didnt evolve from apes
Exercise is bad for your health
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
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OptionProbability
No
Yes
98
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
164
82

