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MSF News

    Prediction markets for MSF

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    19828

    4806

    OptionProbability

    Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

    Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

    ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

    Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

    ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

    Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

    Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

    Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

    Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

    Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

    Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

    Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

    Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

    Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

    Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

    Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

    Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

    Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

    Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

    Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

    Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

    Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

    Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

    Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

    Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

    Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

    Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

    Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

    Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

    Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

    Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

    Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

    Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

    add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

    Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

    Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

    Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

    ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

    ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

    DUPLICATE - NA

    ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

    ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

    ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

    ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

    ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

    ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

    ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

    Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

    Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

    Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

    Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

    Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

    Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

    Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

    Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

    Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

    Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

    Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

    Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

    Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

    Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

    Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

    Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

    Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

    Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

    Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

    Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council

    97

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    56

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    47

    44

    42

    42

    41

    34

    32

    32

    26

    25

    23

    18

    15

    11

    Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

    Apr 6, 1:16 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM
    10498

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    159

    121

    Satya Nadella out as CEO of MSFT by EOY 2026?

    Nov 25, 11:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    9.62%chance
    8345

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    306

    33

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Pope Leo XIV

    UNRWA

    Alexei Navalny

    Timnit Gebru

    Donald Trump

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Yulia Navalnaya

    Antonio Guterres

    Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

    International Court of Justice

    MSF / Doctors without Borders

    Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

    86

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

    Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    20%chance
    8261

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    200

    50

    Will MSFT own >3% of OpenAI's Public Benefit Corp at EOY 2026?

    Sep 23, 9:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    66.51%chance
    877

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    141

    71

    Will MSFT be worth >26x ADBE?

    May 24, 9:27 PMMay 26, 4:59 AM
    46.14%chance
    26

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    74

    66

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