National Security News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

A country declares war on Israel

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

123

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Any country leaves NATO

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

USA leaves NATO

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Successful military coup in Venezuela

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Iran undergoes a regime change

Iran loses territory

Sudanese Civil War ends

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

China formally declares war on another country

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

A country declares war on United States

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Israel loses territory

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iranian troops enter Israel

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

United States formally declares war on another country

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on Iran

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

NO

YES

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"bigger paychecks"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

YES

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Rockstar Games officially releases Grand Theft Auto VI.

Only one of these will happen in 2026.

The Leader of a top-10 GDP country dies.

The executives/government coalitions in at least 3 top-10 GDP countries holds less than 50% of their national parliament at the same time.

The EU AI Act fully enters into force (key provisions enforced, not just passed).

A formal peace treaty is signed by Ukraine and Russia.

A peer-reviewed paper claims strong biosignatures on another planet or moon and is widely accepted (e.g., cited by NASA/ESA) as credible.

A new element is officially added to the periodic table.

A major social media platform completely bans the use of anonymous accounts.

A country formally declares the climate crisis a national security emergency.

A new country is officially recognized by the United Nations.

BRICS members, partners, candidates are involved on opposite sites of wars or military campaigns or military strikes or military actions on at least two separate occasions.

A country admits to the Nord Stream sabotage.

At least one of the following three countries is part of a war or military campaign or military strike or military action on either side. (North Korea, Turkmenistan, Eritrea)

A new European political party will start being represented in the European Parliament, OR an old European political party will stop being represented in the European Parliament.

None of these will happen in 2026.

A human lands on the Moon in a crewed mission.

YES

Immigration (6,725)

Drug Offenses (63,376)

Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)

Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)

Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)

Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)

Robbery (3,717)

Miscellaneous (934)

Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)