National Security News

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Donald Trump remains President of USA

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Sudanese Civil War ends

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any country leaves NATO

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

USA leaves NATO

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

YES

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

YES

Department of Commerce

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

National Security Agency (NSA)

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

Department of Homeland Security

Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

Department of Interior

Department of Defense

Department of State

Department of Energy

YES

Drug Offenses (63,376)

Immigration (6,725)

Weapons, Explosives, Arson (31,700)

Burglary, Larceny, Property Offenses (7,195)

Extortion, Fraud, Bribery (5,626)

Homicide, Aggravated Assault, and Kidnapping Offenses (4,998)

Robbery (3,717)

Miscellaneous (934)

Other: Banking and Insurance, Counterfeit, Embezzlement, Continuing Criminal Enterprise, Courts or Corrections, National Security (1,084)