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Prediction markets for National Statistics Office
Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?
Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.43%chance
1268673
OptionVotes
2709
1883
Which 2024 Labour Manifesto Commitments will be achieved in this Parliament?
Jun 13, 11:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
456528
OptionProbability
100
99
99
88
71
45
33
30
11
OptionVotes
2905
344
Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?
May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM
31.11%chance
101159
OptionVotes
1488
672
Will average wages rise faster than average house prices in the UK before the next general election?
Jul 14, 11:42 AMAug 25, 10:59 PM
40.75%chance
11595
OptionVotes
1206
829
If H5N1 achieves global human-to-human spread, will it be a dud?
Jan 2, 4:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
41.86%chance
9464
OptionVotes
1179
848
Will El Salvador's murder rate be below 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2030?
Mar 18, 12:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.98%chance
6131
OptionVotes
157
65
If the PM at the end of 2033 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2033?
Apr 22, 2:11 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
1100
OptionProbability
83
50
50
50
34
24
24
If the PM after the next UK election is Reform, how many gun deaths in England and Wales over the subsequent 5 years?
Sep 24, 3:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
135
OptionProbability
30
23
12
12
12
12
If the PM at the end of 2029 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2029?
Apr 22, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
If the PM at the end of 2032 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2032?
Apr 22, 2:11 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
If the PM at the end of 2031 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2031?
Apr 22, 2:10 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50