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NBC News News

    Prediction markets for NBC News

    OptionProbability

    call someone retarded through text or speech

    Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)

    A literal red line on the ground/floor

    complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela

    Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.

    refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state

    repeal or reform the dietary guidelines

    request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts

    explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue

    pass 500 or more executive orders

    Stays alive

    complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts

    intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican

    Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws

    Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground

    Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)

    new blockade of a country

    request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts

    sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission

    put his name on a ship in the navy

    have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally

    order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen

    forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc

    declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country

    have a journalist arrested

    Pardon himself

    Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes

    Revoke ten or more citizenships

    issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future

    Causes Tina Peters' early release

    Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)

    ten or more protestors killed during term

    sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries

    Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools

    closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)

    File lawsuit against a congressperson

    complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election

    Nominate a family member to high office

    Enforce the Comstock Act at least once

    Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities

    Dep

    Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS

    call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician

    Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson

    Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)

    add a new federal holiday in his honor

    Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025

    Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)

    Raise the retirement age for social security

    stops all sanctions on Russia

    Raise contribution limits (FEC)

    Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)

    Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress

    Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO

    resume buying oil from Russia

    revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like

    force a former president to testify before Congress

    have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025

    Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.

    get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia

    classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire

    Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)

    His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory

    Call for the death penalty of any former president by name

    have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason

    Postpone the elections due to emergency

    Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture

    Enact price controls on groceries

    Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere

    Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)

    call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech

    remove a major non NATO ally from the current list

    Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest

    repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025

    Add a citizenship question to the census

    End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)

    host putin at mar a lago

    Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)

    federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)

    complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer

    repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)

    Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill

    expand the borders of the usa

    Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt

    Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)

    Prosecute someone for flag burning

    department of defense renamed to Dept of war

    delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday

    Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    Pardon a convicted pedophile

    appoint a family member to lead any federal agency

    declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon

    Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime

    force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt

    Get rid of Noaa.

    Says 6 7 (or variant)

    enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like

    Causes derek chauvin's early release

    Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)

    Call for the end of the House of Reps

    Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education

    take control of a part of greenland

    Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.

    All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump

    Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

    repeal Obamacare

    pardon derek chauvin

    admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely

    Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

    federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms

    debank a congressperson governor or mayor

    expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new

    Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025

    Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency

    Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps

    Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons

    actually disinter bodies from another country

    Call for the end of child marriage

    Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day

    Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906

    Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment

    Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC

    orders arrests of any Biden family member

    Annex any part of Mexico

    cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down

    announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA

    Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security

    Prevent the VA from covering abortion services

    Replace his Vice President

    confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself

    Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA

    Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection

    ends black history month

    Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)

    Salute Putin

    Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)

    cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason

    remove tax exempt from only certain religions

    have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed

    declares a white history month

    threaten to disinter bodies from another country

    Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.

    Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)

    change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again

    fauci in jail at least one week

    take control of a part of ukraine

    confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person

    add a new state

    pardon george santos

    take state ownership in an airline

    Attack a NATO ally.

    Pardon p diddy

    Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990

    changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)

    Implement a federal age of consent

    Eliminate the DOE Loan Program

    Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act

    Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

    Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard

    New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)

    Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.

    Call for the end of gay marriage

    Announce he’s running for a third term

    Pardon ghislaine maxwell

    Fully or partially privatize Social Security

    make statements that are negative about labubu

    Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment

    breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza

    fully nationalize an airline

    Call for the end of the Senate

    Implement a federal abortion ban

    Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

    Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture

    ban trans people from holding federal offices

    stop California from hosting the Olympics

    Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics

    ban all new incoming students from china and/or india

    change or add a face on Mount Rushmore

    change the borders of a state

    breaks ground on a trump building in Russia

    Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war

    repeal an amendment

    Withdraw from NATO

    give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia

    Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system

    enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea

    Call for the end of interracial marriage

    After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy

    bans anime

    bans 6 7

    all time high unemployment reached

    Wearing a white dress after labor day

    Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation

    Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace

    100

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    95

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    3

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    1

    1

    Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?

    Jul 21, 11:47 PMNov 4, 7:59 AM
    7034065

    OptionProbability

    R Senate, D House

    Democrats Sweep

    Republicans Sweep

    D Senate, R House

    Other

    52

    37

    10

    1

    0

    Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

    Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    2.63%chance
    7429608

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    6082

    164

    Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections?

    Nov 8, 11:41 AMNov 26, 4:59 AM
    3614569

    OptionProbability

    JD Vance

    Other

    Gavin Newsom

    AOC

    Pete Buttigieg

    Josh Shapiro

    Ron DeSantis

    Other candidate with Trump as their last name

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Cory Booker

    Donald Trump

    Joe Biden

    Nikki Haley

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Kamala Harris

    Chris Christie

    Elizabeth Warren

    Bernie Sanders

    Other Democrat Politician

    Other Republican Politician

    Kanye West

    Michelle Obama

    Hillary Clinton

    Michael Bloomberg

    Elon Musk

    Ivanka Trump

    Barack Obama

    John Fetterman

    23

    23

    19

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    6521

    153

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1352

    675

    Confrontation between ICE and Minnesota police

    Jan 25, 2:23 AMApr 1, 1:16 AM
    25.97%chance
    142054

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1013

    963

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1155

    866

    Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

    Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    47.01%chance
    261841

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1017

    975

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2298

    435

    Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

    Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    24.29%chance
    8846

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1766

    566

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