NDA News

Effective Altruist purge at Jane Street before Oct. 2025

Oct 2, 7:25 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

3.4%chance

262348

OptionVotes

YES

2186

891

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

May 18, 7:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

221622

OptionProbability

The scandal is forgotten without major change

OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy

Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI

The government takes action against OpenAI

OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy

The NDAs grow into a major popular backlash against OpenAI

Will Jan Leike be charged with violating his NDA for whistleblowing in the next 2 years?

May 15, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.42%chance

221266

OptionVotes

YES

1655

867

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

63.02%chance

5540

OptionVotes

YES

2308

1435

Will Vince McMahon settle out of court with any of his sex scandal accusers?

Jan 29, 3:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.83%chance

7109

OptionVotes

YES

999

995

Will TNX-102 SL Receive FDA Approval for the Treatment of Fibromyalgia?

Dec 22, 11:45 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

115

NDA News

Prediction markets for NDA

Prediction markets for NDA

Prediction markets for NDA

Effective Altruist purge at Jane Street before Oct. 2025

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

Will Jan Leike be charged with violating his NDA for whistleblowing in the next 2 years?

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Will Vince McMahon settle out of court with any of his sex scandal accusers?

Will TNX-102 SL Receive FDA Approval for the Treatment of Fibromyalgia?

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