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Top stories

Hong Kong Developers Confront 70% Jump in 2026 Bond Maturities

Authors

7

6 months ago

Prediction markets for New World Development

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.06%chance

10825367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

1279

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.09%chance

292954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

685

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

23.97%chance

111852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1781

562

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.56%chance

15809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

81.18%chance

15453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

968

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Hong Kong
Economics
Real Estate
Hong Kong Developers Confront 70% Jump in 2026 Bond Maturities
Authors
7
6 months ago

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