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Top stories

Hong Kong Developers Confront 70% Jump in 2026 Bond Maturities

Authors

7

4 months ago

Prediction markets for New World Development

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3849969

OptionProbability

70 - 84%

85% - 95%

Above 95%

Below 70%

81

16

2

1

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

71.69%chance

6620117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

628

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.86%chance

10620059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1854

1251

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

3213336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9882

101

By 2030, will AI have wiped off the whole world's trout population?

Jul 4, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.35%chance

354871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1586

925

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.38%chance

424565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

981

837

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.24%chance

223012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

736

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?

Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.86%chance

282754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

794

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.56%chance

15809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

Will smog be a thing of the past in 2123?

Sep 23, 9:03 AMSep 30, 9:59 PM

81.18%chance

15453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

968

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Hong Kong
Economics
Real Estate
Hong Kong Developers Confront 70% Jump in 2026 Bond Maturities
Authors
7
4 months ago

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