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Prediction markets for New World Development
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.06%chance
10825367
OptionVotes
1791
1279
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.95%chance
424571
OptionVotes
987
811
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.44%chance
213540
OptionVotes
1033
971
2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today
Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.43%chance
233162
OptionVotes
1875
705
OptionVotes
3171
316
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
Jul 24, 7:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.09%chance
292954
OptionVotes
1452
685
Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?
Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM
23.97%chance
111852
OptionVotes
1781
562
6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.
Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.48%chance
14895
OptionVotes
1759
570
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?
Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.56%chance
15809
OptionVotes
1266
790
9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.
Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.78%chance
6671
OptionVotes
1221
822
3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.96%chance
8548
OptionVotes
1334
752
OptionVotes
989
968
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