Newell News

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Other

Ilya Sutskever

Robert Caro

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

JD Vance

Jensen Huang

Kamala Harris

Joe Biden

Gwern Branwen

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

roon

pope Francis

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Sarah Paine

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Narendra Modi

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

Geoffrey Hinton

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Terence Tao

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

YES

Expedition 33 wins 3+ awards

Someone uses a Japanese honorific while speaking English

A Nintendo game wins Best Family Game

Someone says "AI", "artificial intelligence", or "ChatGPT"

Upcoming Half-Life game or related rumors/hype are mentioned at all, even jokingly

Appearance by an A-list actor (A-list status judged by Claude)

A winner keeps talking for 15+ seconds after their end music starts

Geoff Keighly is wearing a tie

Someone says "fuck" or derivatives

Someone references the "please wrap it up" incident

The show is better than average (judged by Manifold poll)

Geoff audibly coughs or clears throat 3+ times

Technical difficulties stall show or break livestream for >30 seconds

Expedition 33 wins 6+ awards

Steam deck "2" information and/or Steam Machine Price Points

A Muppet insults Geoff

Anyone speaks a full sentence in French

A new Nintendo Switch or Nintendo Switch 2 exclusive game is announced

Someone references the Sid the Science Kid meme

A Nintendo (NCL) or Nintendo of America employee appears in-person

KCD 2 wins 1+ awards

Gabe Newell appears in-person

Geoff trips

Someone references the Reformed Orthodox Rabbi Bill Clinton incident

NO

4-6 (Bad trade)

2-3 (Really bad for NOP)

7-10 (somewhat defensible)

1 (Worst case for NOP)

11-15 (slight overpay)

16-23 (fair trade)

YES

New York City

Rest-of-USA (wherever)

San Francisco Bay Area

Rest-of-USA (big city)

Rest-of-world (Britain / Former British colonies outside North America)

Other

Chicago