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Newell News

    Prediction markets for Newell

    Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

    Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    12882928504

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Elon Musk

    Bill Gates

    Jeff Bezos

    Mr. Beast

    Barack Obama

    Gwern Branwen

    Donald Trump

    Satoshi Nakomoto

    Robert Caro

    Kamala Harris

    Jensen Huang

    Sarah Paine

    Sam Altman

    Narendra Modi

    Joe Biden

    JD Vance

    roon

    Geoffrey Hinton

    The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

    Terence Tao

    Ilya Sutskever

    No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

    Tim Cook

    Satya Nadella

    Justin Trudeau

    Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

    Xi Jinping

    Dalai Lama

    Buffett

    Taylor Swift

    Lebron James

    GPT-5

    Bill Clinton

    A basketball player

    Vladimir Putin

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Jesus Christ

    Rona Wang

    Jose Luis ricon

    Kettner Griswold

    James Koppel

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Nancy Pelosi

    Rishi Sunak

    Keir Starmer

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Jimmy Carter

    George W Bush

    Al Gore

    Michael Jackson

    your mom

    Mitt Romney

    one or both of his parents

    A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

    Connor Duffy

    MBS

    pope Francis

    Scott Alexander

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    RFK Jr

    Sydney Sweeney

    growing_daniel

    greg16676935420

    Deadpool

    Shaq

    Oprah Winfrey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Sundar Pichai

    Scarlett Johansson

    Paul McCartney

    [duplicate]

    Neel Nanda

    King Charles

    Kim Jong Un

    Gavin Newsom

    Royal Palace

    [cancelled option]

    Daniel Yergin

    Peter Singer

    Gabe Newell

    Neil Gorsuch

    Stephen Breyer

    Dmitry Medvedev

    JK Rowling

    Shrek

    Sam Hyde

    [invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

    Peter Thiel

    Marques Brownlee

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ben Shindel

    Javier Milei

    Dylan Patel

    Joe Rogan

    Marc Andreessen

    Mike Tyson

    Jake Paul

    Matt Gaetz

    16

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    4

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    1

    1

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    1

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    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

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    0

    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

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    0

    Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Half Life 3 releases?

    Mar 24, 4:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    80.97%chance
    431215

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2190

    1267

    Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Team Fortress 3 releases?

    Mar 24, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    43.92%chance
    13315

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1058

    948

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