NL News

Who will win 2025 MLB NLCS? ⚾ (National League Championship Series)

Oct 21, 1:38 PMOct 29, 3:59 AM

225595

OptionProbability

Los Angeles Dodgers

Other

Philadelphia Phillies

Chicago Cubs

New York Mets

San Francisco Giants

Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds

Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis Cardinals

Which division will yield the 2025 MLB World Series winner?

Feb 10, 5:19 AMNov 8, 5:59 AM

141222

OptionProbability

NL West

AL East

NL East

AL West

NL Central

AL Central

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

1249

958

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

1141

876

Which team in the NL West will finish the 2025 MLB regular season with the best win-loss record?

Apr 24, 3:44 AMOct 5, 11:59 PM

8521

OptionProbability

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Will Apple allow anyone to add third-party Watch faces to Apple Watch by 2024?

Oct 9, 12:48 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

4.13%chance

6386

OptionVotes

YES

492

Who will win the MLB MVP Award in the National League for the 2025 MLB season?

Apr 14, 1:55 PMNov 27, 11:59 PM

6179

OptionProbability

Shohei Ohtani

Other

Francisco Lindor

Juan Soto

Which 2024 MLB Rookie of the Year candidate will have the best sophomore season?

Feb 16, 5:43 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

3161

OptionProbability

Paul Skenes (2024 NL RoY 5.9 bWAR, 4.7 bWAR through July 16, 2025)

Luis Gil (2024 AL RoY, 0 GS in 2025)

Jackson Chourio (2024 - 3.8 bWAR, 1.6 bWAR through July 16, 2025)

Jackson Merrill (2024 - 4.4 bWAR, 1.2 bWAR through July 16, 2025)

Colton Cowser (2024 - 3.1 bWAR, 1.2 bWAR through July 16, 2025)

Austin Wells (2024 - 2.5 bWAR, 0.8 bWAR through July 16, 2025)

Will MLB hitter Luis Arraez win a batting title in either the AL or NL in 2025?

Oct 30, 8:12 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

16.49%chance

5125

OptionVotes

YES

225

Which NL East teams will make the 2025 MLB playoffs (including Wild Card)?

Jun 26, 1:36 AMSep 29, 10:59 PM

2100

OptionProbability

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Atlanta Braves

Other

In 2030, where will Irish electricity prices rank among comparable countries [AU, FI, DK, IE, NL, EE, GB, CH, SG]?

Apr 10, 8:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

100

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

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Prediction markets for NL

Prediction markets for NL

Prediction markets for NL

Who will win 2025 MLB NLCS? ⚾ (National League Championship Series)

Which division will yield the 2025 MLB World Series winner?

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Which team in the NL West will finish the 2025 MLB regular season with the best win-loss record?

Will Apple allow anyone to add third-party Watch faces to Apple Watch by 2024?

Who will win the MLB MVP Award in the National League for the 2025 MLB season?

Which 2024 MLB Rookie of the Year candidate will have the best sophomore season?

Will MLB hitter Luis Arraez win a batting title in either the AL or NL in 2025?

Which NL East teams will make the 2025 MLB playoffs (including Wild Card)?

In 2030, where will Irish electricity prices rank among comparable countries [AU, FI, DK, IE, NL, EE, GB, CH, SG]?

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

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Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?