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Prediction markets for of Government
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
149198902
OptionProbability
59
20
19
2
0
0
0
0
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
53.08%chance
91101678
OptionVotes
1064
940
Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)
May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM
84%chance
25335562
OptionVotes
2282
392
U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026
Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM
3%chance
2721165
OptionVotes
17967
2050
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
23.41%chance
8720078
OptionVotes
12408
8996
Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
41.36%chance
8617611
OptionVotes
1245
1097
Will Trump terminate any of Elon Musk's government contracts before 2026?
Jun 5, 9:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.82%chance
466619
OptionVotes
1807
144
Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?
Jan 13, 12:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
9.11%chance
1414725
OptionVotes
3527
1816
Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?
May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM
67.04%chance
303185
OptionVotes
2582
1615
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%chance
311936
OptionVotes
1629
626
Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?
Sep 4, 6:15 PMOct 22, 9:59 PM
26.31%chance
241090
OptionVotes
1044
967
Will there be a head of state and/or government of a G20 country with a background in Effective Altrusim (EA) by 2035?
Dec 11, 12:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
30.34%chance
16792
OptionVotes
992
971