Office of Management News

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

19679

5082

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

467761

OptionProbability

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations:

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80.25%chance

291896

OptionVotes

YES

1511

823

How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?

Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

231815

OptionProbability

16-20

11-15

21-25

6-10

31-35

1-5

26-30

36-40

41-45

Other

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Feb 17, 7:14 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

211453

OptionProbability

>=2035

2032

2033

2034

2031

2029

2030

2028

2027

<=2025

2026

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.16%chance

18716

OptionVotes

YES

1087

920

Trump executive orders in first year: number

Mar 19, 6:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5544

How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?

May 2, 1:42 PMMay 2, 1:42 PM

18516

OptionProbability

2 to 3 years

1 to 2 years

3 to 4 years

Full 4-year term or more

6 to 12 months

Less than 6 months

Will my employer be hit with a major ransomware attack again by the end of 2025?

Oct 7, 8:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.83%chance

6145

OptionVotes

YES

267

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

240

Office of Management News

Prediction markets for Office of Management

Prediction markets for Office of Management

Prediction markets for Office of Management

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?

By what year will I have virtually no human capital left?

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Trump executive orders in first year: number

How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?

Will my employer be hit with a major ransomware attack again by the end of 2025?

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

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