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Office of Management News

    Prediction markets for Office of Management

    What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

    Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM
    7914754

    OptionProbability

    Attorney General: Pam Bondi

    Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

    Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

    Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

    Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

    Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

    Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

    Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

    Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

    Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

    Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

    Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

    United States Trade Representative: James Greer

    Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

    Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

    Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

    Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

    Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

    Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

    Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

    Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

    President: Donald Trump

    Vice President: JD Vance

    100

    100

    100

    95

    83

    79

    78

    77

    67

    39

    35

    34

    29

    27

    27

    27

    27

    22

    22

    22

    21

    20

    16

    14

    10

    3

    Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

    Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    312960

    OptionProbability

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

    Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    99

    93

    91

    89

    88

    85

    83

    78

    78

    78

    78

    78

    75

    68

    66

    66

    51

    50

    37

    31

    13

    0

    0

    0

    Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

    Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    54.05%chance
    72481

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2024

    1980

    Former president Biden dead in 2026?

    Jan 10, 6:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    8.94%chance
    152280

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2233

    1428

    Was Epstein a Russian asset?

    Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM
    14.9%chance
    232276

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2390

    418

    Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

    Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    74.89%chance
    311936

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1629

    626

    Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?

    Dec 11, 7:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    80.25%chance
    291896

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1511

    823

    Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

    Oct 16, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    26.82%chance
    6945

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1253

    111

    US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?

    Feb 13, 7:20 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM
    50.25%chance
    17736

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1005

    995

    Will Kyndryl Holdings recover from today's crash within 6 month?

    Feb 9, 8:57 PMAug 9, 8:49 PM
    15%chance
    3315

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    238

    42

    Will Joe Biden die this year?

    Mar 31, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    11.32%chance
    7239

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    280

    36

    2026 Los Angeles City Controller Election

    Nov 9, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Kenneth Mejia (incumbent)

    Isadore Hall

    Other

    33

    33

    33

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