OM News
Top stories
Prediction markets for OM
OptionVotes
307
101
Will GPT-5.2 Achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 40%?
Dec 6, 7:33 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
40.13%chance
3450
OptionVotes
1221
819
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
Jul 4, 8:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
26.38%chance
9265
OptionVotes
209
144
Will Saudi Arabia invade Yemen or Oman by the end of 2027?
Jun 23, 6:11 AMDec 31, 7:11 AM
32.75%chance
6259
OptionVotes
143
70
Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.06%chance
2150
OptionVotes
1150
870
Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.39%chance
4149
OptionVotes
1026
852
Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?
Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM
45.85%chance
2111
OptionVotes
1087
920
If Trump is elected in 2024, will omega-6 be listed on US food labels by 2030?
Oct 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM
39.02%chance
125
OptionVotes
125
80
Will Feng Timo have a OMICm age >10 years younger than her chronological age?
Nov 10, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.02%chance
223
OptionVotes
70
70
Will the new EU omnibus be passed by the European Parliament?
Jun 12, 5:14 PMDec 31, 6:12 PM
59.02%chance
120
OptionVotes
120
83
Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?
Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61%chance
013
OptionVotes
63
40
Will Guido Putignano win the Ordine al Merito della Repubblica Italiana (OMRI) by EOY2060?
Sep 21, 6:43 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100