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OptionVotes
4309
676
Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?
Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM
83.97%chance
12427823
OptionVotes
11866
9323
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.26%chance
224741
OptionVotes
5159
2655
Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.
Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
67.44%chance
231465
OptionVotes
1439
695
OptionVotes
1981
505
Will the Red Deer (Cervus elaphus) become extinct in the current century?
Mar 26, 8:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
7.49%chance
7717
OptionVotes
1216
354
OptionProbability
100
71
66
50
41
30
24