One More Level News

Ghostrunner Studio One More Level Reveals ‘Valor Mortis’ First-Person Soulslike

7 months ago

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

27%chance

21684597685

OptionVotes

YES

18927

4612

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.13%chance

496718382

OptionVotes

YES

16276

14269

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.61%chance

2267678

OptionVotes

YES

6755

3832

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

31241

3201

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

7748

3856

When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?

Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

83435

OptionProbability

After 2035

Only after superintelligence is achieved

2031-2035

2029-2030

2027-2028

2026

Feb-June 2025

July-Dec 2025

What will be true of the Meta Quest 4

Feb 5, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

181992

OptionProbability

Released by 2026-12-31

OS-level eye-based 'pointer' on at least one model

Multiple models of Quest 4 at release (e.g., Quest 4 Pro, Lite)

Face capture cameras on all new models

Weigh less than quest 3

Automatic IPD adjustment on at least one model

Will come in multiple color options

Any of Quest 4 models cost >$1,000

Option to buy without controllers

Any of Quest 4 models cost < $450

Hands as Controllers

Varifocal displays

External front-facing display

Total pixel count greater than Apple vision Pro

Released by 2025-12-31

Released by 2024-12-31

A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all

Jan 29, 4:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

24.13%chance

13271

OptionVotes

YES

1066

651

Will basedbeffjezos be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization

Nov 1, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.98%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

169

Will Elon musk be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization

Nov 1, 2:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.26%chance

576

OptionVotes

YES

172

Will Jose Luis Ricon have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 3?

Jun 4, 9:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will Lada Nuzhna have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 5?

Jun 4, 9:29 PMDec 31, 10:28 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
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Ghostrunner Studio One More Level Reveals ‘Valor Mortis’ First-Person Soulslike
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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?

What will be true of the Meta Quest 4

A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all

Will basedbeffjezos be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization

Will Elon musk be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization

Will Jose Luis Ricon have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 3?

Will Lada Nuzhna have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 5?

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