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Prediction markets for One More Level
OptionVotes
19480
4415
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.04%chance
508725007
OptionVotes
16811
12177
OptionProbability
50
25
20
18
15
15
14
13
11
10
10
0
0
0
If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?
Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM
15.73%chance
16740693
OptionVotes
24642
5236
When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?
Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
84259
OptionProbability
69
49
22
18
10
4
0
0
OptionProbability
84
67
67
62
42
42
39
39
38
34
24
15
10
8
1
1
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
Jan 29, 4:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
24.13%chance
13271
OptionVotes
1066
651
Will basedbeffjezos be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization
Nov 1, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.98%chance
481
OptionVotes
169
59
Will Elon musk be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization
Nov 1, 2:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.26%chance
576
OptionVotes
172
58
Will Edwin S Kite be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization
Jun 19, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
46%chance
211
OptionVotes
108
92
Will Jose Luis Ricon have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 3?
Jun 4, 9:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
Will Lada Nuzhna have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 5?
Jun 4, 9:29 PMDec 31, 10:28 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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