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Prediction markets for One More Level
OptionVotes
19277
4486
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.13%chance
496718382
OptionVotes
16276
14269
Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.61%chance
2267678
OptionVotes
6755
3832
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM
9.29%chance
7639546
OptionVotes
31241
3201
Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.7%chance
266994
OptionVotes
7748
3856
When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?
Feb 24, 12:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
83435
OptionProbability
69
49
45
35
20
10
0
0
OptionProbability
85
77
67
67
60
47
43
42
42
38
34
29
10
10
5
2
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
Jan 29, 4:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
24.13%chance
13271
OptionVotes
1066
651
Will basedbeffjezos be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization
Nov 1, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.98%chance
481
OptionVotes
169
59
Will Elon musk be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization
Nov 1, 2:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.26%chance
576
OptionVotes
172
58
Will Jose Luis Ricon have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 3?
Jun 4, 9:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
Will Lada Nuzhna have at least one test with 8OxoG levels less than 5?
Jun 4, 9:29 PMDec 31, 10:28 PM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100
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