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Top stories

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for ONS

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.02%chance

77947790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308918

47852

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.32%chance

480364022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2874

2054

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.79%chance

255259969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5157

4769

A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece?

Oct 10, 4:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.21%chance

293121424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16528

7039

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.63%chance

432109670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11029

10692

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.93%chance

14717706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10226

9709

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

26.71%chance

1210988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16566

6037

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11488

8479

US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.26%chance

115341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13705

7296

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

183705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10462

9632

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.19%chance

132736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11683

8566

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Britain
Economics
Business
UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks
Authors
13
4 months ago

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