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Top stories

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

Authors

13

6 months ago

Prediction markets for ONS

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

555496084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.22%chance

270269974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5677

4517

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52%chance

452120313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11005

10745

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.76%chance

17325218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11898

9090

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.29%chance

14818058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10070

9929

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

26.71%chance

1210988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16566

6037

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.01%chance

85507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15284

6552

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.45%chance

144236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13183

7595

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.21%chance

204208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10135

9805

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10122

9934

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Britain
Economics
Business
UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks
Authors
13
6 months ago

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