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Top stories

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

Authors

13

7 months ago

Prediction markets for ONS

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44%chance

593573884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3288

1364

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.46%chance

283283146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6817

3928

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.91%chance

464127055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11191

10542

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.01%chance

21439601

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

1972

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.25%chance

14918068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10080

9921

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.4%chance

198426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15475

6475

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

196946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13549

7392

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.04%chance

224418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9992

9986

Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

59.28%chance

63015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12066

8288

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Britain
Economics
Business
UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks
Authors
13
7 months ago

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