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Prediction markets for ONS
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
44%chance
593573884
OptionVotes
3288
1364
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.46%chance
283283146
OptionVotes
6817
3928
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.91%chance
464127055
OptionVotes
11191
10542
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM
30.42%chance
2154258
OptionVotes
16293
6948
Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?
Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM
61.01%chance
21439601
OptionVotes
2073
1972
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
44.25%chance
14918068
OptionVotes
10080
9921
Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?
Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM
20.3%chance
1214238
OptionVotes
19816
5046
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4310153
OptionVotes
10938
8979
Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?
Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.4%chance
198426
OptionVotes
15475
6475
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.3%chance
196946
OptionVotes
13549
7392
Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?
Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
56.04%chance
224418
OptionVotes
9992
9986
Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?
Mar 21, 2:23 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM
59.28%chance
63015
OptionVotes
12066
8288