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Prediction markets for ONS
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
9.02%chance
77947790
OptionVotes
308918
47852
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.05%chance
480364042
OptionVotes
2865
2074
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.79%chance
255259969
OptionVotes
5157
4769
A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece?
Oct 10, 4:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.21%chance
293121424
OptionVotes
16528
7039
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
50.63%chance
432109670
OptionVotes
11029
10692
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM
29.57%chance
1953878
OptionVotes
16624
6806
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.93%chance
14717706
OptionVotes
10226
9709
Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?
Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM
26.71%chance
1210988
OptionVotes
16566
6037
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
53.7%chance
429653
OptionVotes
11488
8479
US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?
Nov 24, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.26%chance
115341
OptionVotes
13705
7296
Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?
Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
58.05%chance
183705
OptionVotes
10462
9632
Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?
Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.19%chance
132736
OptionVotes
11683
8566