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Top stories

Medtronic Adds Two Directors, Lifts Forecast After Elliott Becomes Top Investor

Company Earnings

Medtronic Adds Two Directors, Lifts Forecast After Elliott Becomes Top Investor

Authors

13

5 hours ago

Prediction markets for Operating

By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

37144562

OptionProbability

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-01-01

Flight 11

Flight 10

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

95

86

62

18

1

0

0

0

0

0

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10695201

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

64

20

5

3

3

2

2

1

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.5%chance

5715897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12925

9373

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

8610738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

879

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.1%chance

9410629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2247

1155

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.93%chance

723463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

1187

Will a reactionless drive be conclusively demonstrated operational in space before 2100?

Sep 9, 7:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

68.35%chance

191694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1497

166

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.37%chance

171427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

858

Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?

Mar 6, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.08%chance

251348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

900

Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?

Sep 24, 2:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.17%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1481

675

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 19, 2025
Aug 19, 2025
Breaking
Company Earnings
Business
Medtronic Adds Two Directors, Lifts Forecast After Elliott Becomes Top Investor
Authors
13
5 hours ago

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