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Prediction markets for Operating
By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?
Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM
48227565
OptionProbability
99
98
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
140174415
OptionProbability
71
14
4
3
3
3
1
1
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.28%chance
215110789
OptionVotes
13048
3140
Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.18%chance
8611268
OptionVotes
1816
965
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.26%chance
2411233
OptionVotes
11928
1118
OptionVotes
2222
1191
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Feb 3, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.79%chance
479194
OptionVotes
3035
329
OptionVotes
2856
100
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
30.73%chance
764207
OptionVotes
1281
1116
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
60.45%chance
274056
OptionVotes
1236
809
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
52.83%chance
181437
OptionVotes
1093
868
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
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