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Prediction markets for Operating
By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?
Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM
37144562
OptionProbability
95
86
62
18
1
0
0
0
0
0
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
10695201
OptionProbability
64
20
5
3
3
2
2
1
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
14.5%chance
5715897
OptionVotes
12925
9373
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.26%chance
2411233
OptionVotes
11928
1118
Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25%chance
8610738
OptionVotes
2046
879
OptionVotes
2247
1155
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
28.93%chance
723463
OptionVotes
1251
1187
Will a reactionless drive be conclusively demonstrated operational in space before 2100?
Sep 9, 7:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
68.35%chance
191694
OptionVotes
1497
166
Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?
Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.74%chance
221693
OptionVotes
1726
368
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
53.37%chance
171427
OptionVotes
1104
858
Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?
Mar 6, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.08%chance
251348
OptionVotes
1211
900
Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?
Sep 24, 2:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
54.17%chance
14587
OptionVotes
1481
675
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