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In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
143239648
OptionProbability
99
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
47.99%chance
227122509
OptionVotes
12922
3274
Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by
Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
81.82%chance
824290
OptionVotes
21552
3763
OptionVotes
3729
43
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.22%chance
2511293
OptionVotes
11988
1114
Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.18%chance
8611268
OptionVotes
1816
965
OptionVotes
2188
1241
Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 20+ operational stations before 2030?
Jul 1, 8:12 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
75.83%chance
437023
OptionVotes
2973
1153
Will The Boring Company's Vegas Loop have 50+ operational stations before 2030?
Oct 5, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.23%chance
84255
OptionVotes
13861
7215
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.95%chance
324193
OptionVotes
1361
735
Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?
Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.26%chance
42065
OptionVotes
3484
702
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
52.83%chance
181437
OptionVotes
1093
868
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