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In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
140175462
OptionProbability
70
14
4
3
3
3
1
1
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
50.18%chance
223117871
OptionVotes
13138
3050
Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by
Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
78.89%chance
412329
OptionVotes
19863
4175
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.22%chance
2411283
OptionVotes
11978
1115
Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.18%chance
8611268
OptionVotes
1816
965
OptionVotes
2222
1191
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Feb 3, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.07%chance
509768
OptionVotes
3166
316
OptionVotes
3232
68
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.23%chance
304131
OptionVotes
1311
763
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
52.83%chance
181437
OptionVotes
1093
868
Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?
Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
41.62%chance
2190
OptionVotes
1684
1344
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
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