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By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?
Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM
42196158
OptionProbability
99
98
61
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
111104871
OptionProbability
51
15
13
7
6
4
4
1
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
26.15%chance
17160323
OptionVotes
10776
7116
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.26%chance
2411233
OptionVotes
11928
1118
Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.44%chance
8611118
OptionVotes
1666
1031
OptionVotes
2247
1155
Will a reactionless drive be conclusively demonstrated operational in space before 2100?
Sep 9, 7:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
31%chance
225269
OptionVotes
1106
588
Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?
Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
28.93%chance
723463
OptionVotes
1251
1187
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
53.37%chance
171427
OptionVotes
1104
858
Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?
Mar 6, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.08%chance
251348
OptionVotes
1211
900
Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?
Sep 24, 2:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
59.38%chance
151287
OptionVotes
1396
787
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
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