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US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

10 months ago

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

YES

10678

9273

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

88.48%chance

336644389

OptionVotes

YES

11092

3630

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

194149424

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234504

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic primary for PA Senate Seat?

Mar 20, 6:48 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

182734

OptionVotes

YES

1044

608

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.91%chance

4621

OptionVotes

YES

1401

947

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

Nov 14, 5:20 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

10441

OptionProbability

YES

248

161

PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO

Oct 18, 11:14 AMNov 5, 10:59 PM

96%chance

3390

OptionVotes

YES

490

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Jul 26, 4:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

16.66%chance

8227

OptionVotes

YES

224

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Jul 26, 4:24 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

18.93%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

207

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

1010

941

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Aug 29, 2025
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US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly
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10 months ago

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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic primary for PA Senate Seat?

Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Mike from PA (Central_Committee) Stock (Permanent)

PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO

Will PA prove a contradiction by 2100?

Will PA prove a contradiction by 1 0000?

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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