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Prediction markets for PA
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.45%chance
958695692
OptionVotes
10084
9803
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
12.63%chance
802467730
OptionVotes
48915
11661
When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM
95382487
OptionProbability
76
11
10
8
7
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
59.04%chance
194268635
OptionVotes
5839
3348
OptionProbability
56
43
1
Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?
Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
36.13%chance
11518640
OptionVotes
15117
7622
Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?
Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM
214439
OptionProbability
21
6
6
5
3
OptionProbability
248
161
PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO
Oct 18, 11:14 AMNov 5, 10:59 PM
96%chance
3390
OptionVotes
490
20
OptionVotes
224
45
OptionVotes
207
48
Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
Latest stories
Latest stories
- US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN AssemblyAuthors223 months ago
