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Prediction markets for PA
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.68%chance
985744202
OptionVotes
10678
9273
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
88.48%chance
336644389
OptionVotes
11092
3630
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
9.66%chance
834517250
OptionVotes
59065
10415
OptionProbability
60
39
1
Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?
Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM
234504
OptionProbability
20
6
5
5
3
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic primary for PA Senate Seat?
Mar 20, 6:48 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
13%chance
182734
OptionVotes
1044
608
Will "The CIA Poisoned My Dog: Two Stories About Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 1, 10:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.91%chance
4621
OptionVotes
1401
947
OptionProbability
248
161
PA Supreme Court justices Donohue, Dougherty, and Wecht retention votes? YES or NO
Oct 18, 11:14 AMNov 5, 10:59 PM
96%chance
3390
OptionVotes
490
20
OptionVotes
224
45
OptionVotes
207
48
Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 27, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.88%chance
110
OptionVotes
1010
941
Latest stories
Latest stories
- US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN AssemblyAuthors2210 months ago
