Pacific Time News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Pacific Time
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63%chance
239238329
OptionVotes
5784
4452
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
53.19%chance
8336738
OptionVotes
1066
938
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
51.75%chance
4910166
OptionVotes
1052
911
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
Nov 11, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
16.04%chance
267654
OptionVotes
2288
437
Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)?
Jun 2, 10:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83.44%chance
124918
OptionVotes
1215
911
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
71.06%chance
323177
OptionVotes
1567
638
OptionVotes
2425
412
OptionVotes
2390
418
OptionVotes
1016
985
OptionVotes
2345
426
OptionVotes
1593
628
OptionVotes
1424
702
Latest stories
Latest stories